China-Central Asia cooperation in BRI scholarship
The Peking University campus in Beijing, China
In a new publication by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), DIGISILK lead researcher for Kazakhstan, Oyuna Baldakova, explores how Chinese scholarship conceptualises the role of Central Asian states in the future of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), its risks and opportunities. The regional analysis is based on three recently translated articles by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, state research institute, and Tongji University, in Shanghai; China Development Institute, a Shenzhen-based think tank; and the Peking University, in Beijing.
Read below the full analysis:
The three translated texts analyze the past decade of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) amid the growing strategic competition between the United States and China. Wei Xin and Yan Shaojun provide a general overview of the economic security, geopolitical, and domestic risks facing the BRI’s implementation. Gao Cheng, Xue Lin, and Yanjun Bei examine China’s technological cooperation with Southeast Asia, emphasizing the BRI’s role in overcoming U.S. containment and offering tailored cooperation opportunities in the region.
“Chinese exports of agriculture, mining, printing, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and electronic equipment to Central Asia face some of the highest tariffs compared to other regions”
The first two texts mention Central Asia, among other regions. Wei Xin discusses economic security risks associated with the BRI’s transition from the “layout initiation stage” to the “high-quality development stage.” When discussing global economic barriers, he underscores the challenges faced by developing BRI countries, including trade barriers, industrial transfers, and economic sanctions imposed by Western-dominated systems. Notably, according to the table on tariff barriers between China and BRI countries, Chinese exports of agriculture, mining, printing, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and electronic equipment to Central Asia face some of the highest tariffs compared to other regions. These tariffs might be a result of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU)’s tariff harmonization effort (with two out of five Central Asian states being members) or the countries’ attempts to protect domestic sectors such as agriculture and non-ferrous metals and earn from the imports of Chinese electronics and printing equipment.
Furthermore, Wei Xin stresses the need to explore political, cultural, and social factors of economic security, noting how the constraints imposed by developed nations often render BRI countries passive. Any of China’s actions, therefore, could raise doubts and even lead to political sanctions. Giving an example of China’s cooperation with Central Asia in the energy sector, he notes that it is likely to raise suspicions from others who fear interference with the Eurasian integration process. Here, it is unclear whether Wei Xin implies Russia’s concern with China’s growing engagement with the region, but the author seems to deny the agency of Central Asian states in the cases of both trade tariffs and energy sector cooperation. He then, however, highlights the importance of respecting cultural differences to prevent religious and cultural risks from causing economic losses or political conflicts, especially in Central Asia.
“Similar to the prevailing international narratives about the region, the Central Asian countries are depicted to have little agency and are treated as passive players in the broader geopolitical game”
Yan Shaojun also examines the growing risks surrounding the BRI against a backdrop of complex international dynamics. Like Wei Xin, he assesses China’s engagement with Central Asia in the context of its relations with Russia. He observes that Russia was once “strategically skeptical” of the BRI, but also that the Russia-Ukraine “conflict” has prompted closer ties between China and Russia. Despite Russia’s reservations about China’s influence in its traditional sphere, Yan anticipates strategic cooperation between the two nations, albeit accompanied by “strategic precaution.” Additionally, he underscores U.S. efforts to expand the United States’ presence in Central Asia, as evidenced by its updated strategy for the region. Yan stresses the importance of strengthening economic ties with Central Asia to navigate the heightened political risks in the region. Leveraging improved trust between China and Russia and diminished Russian influence in Central Asia, Yan proposes the establishment of a trade and investment network centered around Xinjiang and aligned with the EEU.
Both authors regard the BRI as a strategy to counter U.S. influence across various regions, emphasizing the significance of engaging Russia and the EEU for effective BRI implementation in Central Asia. Similar to the prevailing international narratives about the region, the Central Asian countries are depicted to have little agency and are treated as passive players in the broader geopolitical game.